National Security and Stability Outlook

Colombia

A 12 month forward look for embassies and investors

Colombia changed government on 7 August. The next twelve months will be shaped by how a hard security platform, a contested fiscal picture, and a set of unresolved territorial disputes land in practice. This paper sets out what that means for organizations with people, assets, or supply chains in the country.

What's inside

Why Bogotá, not the regions, is the single stability indicator to watch, and why a major route blockage would reprice country risk nationally within days
The two track crime picture: street crime falling across every major category while homicides and acts of terrorism rise
Why a single national risk rating no longer holds, with Cali's homicide rate now three and a half times Bogotá's
Sector by sector implications across ports and airports, data centers, extractives, agriculture, and tax
Where duty of care planning should be localized, including Urabá, the Coffee Region, Tibú, Tumaco, and the Buenaventura to Magdalena corridor
Suggested actions for each sector, written to be acted on rather than filed

Who's it for?

Written for people who need to make decisions about Colombia, not for general readers.

Diplomatic missions and consular teams, calibrating travel advice, duty of care triggers, and staff movement protocols as the transition proceeds
Investors and corporate operators, assessing sector exposure across infrastructure, digital, extractives, agriculture, and tax before committing capital or signing multi-year agreements
Security, risk, and continuity leads, building escalation ladders and contingency plans around specific indicators rather than a generic national unrest threshold
NGOs and development organizations with programs in conflict-affected departments, where the national picture and the local picture have diverged sharply
Anyone tracking Venezuela, since Colombia's border posture and regional alignments are a dependency for the wider picture

About the author

Maria Jaramillo is a Senior Analyst at Sicuro Group with more than 20 years leading operations in complex conflict and post-conflict environments. She has held senior roles with PAICMA, UNMAS, and The HALO Trust across Latin America, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. Her assessments are triangulated against a primary network of military contacts, government authorities, and humanitarian stakeholders, and cross-checked against official data and open source reporting.

Read the full paper

16 pages. Published 31 July 2026.

Sicuro Group provides travel risk management, crisis response, and protective services to organizations operating across more than 140 countries. If you have operations in Colombia and want to talk through what the transition means for your people and continuity planning,